Probability of instant rail break induced by wheel–rail impact loading using field test data

The probability of an instant rail break, initiated at a single pre-existing foot crack due to severe wheel impact loading, is predicted using statistical methods and time-domain model for the simulation dynamic vehicle–track interaction. A linear elastic fracture mechanics approach employed calculate stress intensity in continuously welded subjected combined bending temperature loading. Based on long-term field measurements wayside load detector, three-parameter distribution determined. For faster numerical assessment failure, thin plate spline regression implemented develop meta-model performance function quantifying crack. methodology demonstrated by investigating influence initial length, toughness difference risk break.